Goldman Sachs lifted its end-2026 copper price target by more than 10% to $13,735/ton this week, cutting its global mine supply estimate by 350,000 tons after disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula. Citigroup went further, targeting $14,500/ton this month and $15,000 within a year. The upgrades aren't about demand—they're about admitting the mines aren't coming back.
Copper is trading just above $14,000 a ton in London, roughly $500 shy of its all-time high set in January. The metal that was supposed to correct after its record run is instead forcing the analysts who called that correction to reverse course. What changed wasn't sentiment—it was the realization that two of the world's largest new projects are stuck, and tariff uncertainty is keeping U.S. buyers stockpiling at a pace nobody modeled.
Goldman now estimates the copper deficit outside the United States could exceed 640,000 tons this year, up from a prior forecast of just 60,000 tons. That's not a revision—it's a capitulation. The bank had been threading the needle between structural bull-case demand and cyclical oversupply fears. The deficit is now ten times what they thought it would be three months ago.
U.S. copper imports exceeded expectations during the first half of 2026, and Goldman expects imports to accelerate again next month. The continued wave reflects lingering uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. A tariff review on refined copper imports is still pending, and Citigroup notes that ongoing concerns about potential U.S. tariffs could continue supporting market sentiment at least until the trade policy review at the end of June. Buyers are treating "maybe tariffs" the same way they'd treat "definitely tariffs"—by pulling forward as much tonnage as the arbs allow.
With Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula both constrained through at least 2028, and tariff uncertainty keeping U.S. stockpiling elevated, the tightness looks structural rather than cyclical. HSBC warned of a broader commodities "super-squeeze" linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure. The terminology matters: a squeeze implies temporary, a super-squeeze implies the buffer is gone and any shock—from Hormuz to a flooded Chilean pit—moves price non-linearly.
The real tell is that both banks are raising targets while China, the world's largest buyer, remains a question mark. The question for the second half of the year isn't whether supply is tight—it clearly is—it's whether demand from China holds up enough to push prices all the way to Citi's $15,000 target. If Goldman and Citi are pricing in $15,000 with Chinese demand still uncertain, they're effectively saying the supply side alone justifies the move.
What to watch:
- June 30 tariff review: Citi flags the trade policy review at the end of June as a key date. If refined copper dodges the tariff list, the import surge reverses and the U.S. deficit shrinks fast.
- Grasberg restart timing: Both Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula are constrained through at least 2028. Any guidance suggesting an earlier return adds supply the market isn't pricing.
- China's import data for May: Whether demand from China holds up enough to push prices to Citi's $15,000 target hinges on the next round of customs