Monday, June 01, 2026 · 07:48 PM
FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson stood on a North Texas farm last week and told growers from eighteen states what they already knew: somebody is making money on fertilizer, and it sure isn't the people buying it. Then he told them what they didn't know—that his agency had already opened a formal industrywide investigation, complete with civil investigative demands carrying subpoena power, into the pricing practices and market concentration of the companies selling them nitrogen.
The announcement landed during peak planting season. Urea prices have surged **55%** since the Strait of Hormuz closed in late February. Anhydrous ammonia, another nitrogen staple, climbed **33%** over the same span, according to testimony from the Kentucky Farm Bureau. But growers at the event—organized under the title "Fed Up: Fertilizer Cartel Profits off Farmers' Backs and Your Grocery Bill"—made clear the problem predates geopolitics. Fertilizer prices have risen more than **150%** since 2020, far outpacing general inflation, while net farm income fell **31%** from its 2022 peak.
*The USDA confirmed fertilizer has been the single largest driver of rising input costs for U.S. farmers since 2020.* An American Farm Bureau Federation survey in April found many producers simply couldn't afford the full fertilizer application their crops required this season. Meanwhile, Chapter 12 farm bankruptcy filings tell the other half of the story: Arkansas saw **33 filings** in 2025, up **100%** year-over-year and the most in the state this century. Georgia's **27 filings** represented a **145%** jump. Iowa's **18** were up **220%**. In total, **839 farms** filed for bankruptcy over the last four years—just the ones that made it to court—while **35,000 U.S. farms** disappeared altogether.
Ferguson didn't mince words. The companies under scrutiny—Mosaic, Nutrien, CF Industries, and Koch—control a concentrated market with limited competition. The FTC's move marks the first federal investigation with formal subpoena authority capable of antitrust enforcement if the evidence supports it. The chairman emphasized that high prices alone don't prove illegal conduct, but the agency "cannot rule out" anti-competitive behavior.
South Dakota farmer Trent Kubik, who attended the Texas event, captured the squeeze precisely. He paid **$200 to $300 per ton** for urea in 2020. That jumped to over **$900 per ton** in 2022 when corn prices spiked—at least there was a relationship then, he told Farm Journal. Now, with corn prices back down, fertilizer remains elevated, and farmers are asked to absorb the delta. One grower put it bluntly: "They use issues like the Strait of Hormuz closing to jump up fertilizer that's already here in this country. It didn't come through the Strait of Hormuz. But they use that excuse to jump the price."
The historical parallel is instructive. When the Justice Department opened a similar probe into meatpacking consolidation in 2021, it took years to yield enforcement action—and even then, the results were tepid. Fertilizer concentration is arguably tighter. Farmers aren't asking for price controls; they're asking for genuine competition and transparency in a market where four names dominate and pricing moves in lockstep regardless of underlying supply fundamentals or regional dynamics.
What to watch:
- Document production deadlines: The FTC has begun issuing compulsory process. How quickly Mosaic, Nutrien, CF Industries, and Koch comply—and whether they challenge the demands—will signal how seriously they view the threat.
- Margin compression into 2027: Net farm income is already forecast to decline further. If fertilizer stays elevated while grain prices remain soft, bankruptcy filings will accelerate, particularly in the Midwest and Southeast where leverage is highest.
- Political appetite for enforcement: Ferguson drew a standing ovation in Texas, but turning farmer frustration into antitrust findings requires more than outrage. Watch whether the FTC escalates to depositions and whether Congress applies pressure through appropriations or parallel hearings.