$18.7 billion to $3.4 trillion in fourteen years. That's the trajectory Morgan Stanley reportedly laid out for SpaceX in materials circulated to prospective IPO investors this week. The firm's analysis projects revenue reaching $330 billion by 2030 and $3.4 trillion by 2040, with adjusted EBITDA climbing to roughly $2.7 trillion.
The projections arrive as SpaceX prepares for a $75 billion IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, which would make it the largest public offering in history.
The numbers are striking because they begin from a business that only recently turned sharply unprofitable. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue during 2025 but reported a net loss of $4.94 billion, compared with a profit of $791 million the year before. Morgan Stanley's forecast implies revenue growth of more than 180-fold over the next fourteen years.
The primary driver of that growth is not launch services or Starlink. According to the reported projections, AI becomes the dominant contributor. Morgan Stanley estimates AI-related revenue could grow from roughly $3.2 billion in 2025 to $190 billion by 2030. Goldman Sachs, the lead underwriter, is reportedly even more aggressive, projecting AI revenue could reach $322 billion by the end of the decade.
The investment case increasingly rests on a vision of SpaceX as more than a launch company. Following the acquisition of xAI earlier this year, investors are being asked to evaluate SpaceX as a vertically integrated infrastructure platform spanning launch, satellite communications, data centers, power, and artificial intelligence.
That vision remains highly controversial. Morningstar recently assigned SpaceX a fair value estimate of approximately $780 billion, well below both the company's private-market valuation and proposed IPO valuation. The debate ultimately centers on whether SpaceX can establish a meaningful position in AI infrastructure and capture a substantial share of future compute demand.
Three developments matter most over the next eighteen months:
AI revenue growth. Morgan Stanley's long-term forecast depends heavily on AI revenue scaling from $3.2 billion in 2025 to $190 billion by 2030. Early revenue figures in 2026 and 2027 will provide the first indication of whether that trajectory is realistic.
The limited public float. SpaceX plans to sell only about 3% of the company in the offering, while Elon Musk is expected to retain overwhelming voting control. A small float combined with intense retail and institutional demand could result in significant volatility after listing.
The path to profitability. The company lost nearly $5 billion last year. The bullish case assumes substantial operating leverage emerges as AI-related businesses scale, eventually transforming today's losses into very large cash flows.
Ultimately, this is one of the most ambitious growth forecasts ever attached to a public offering. If SpaceX successfully combines its launch capabilities, satellite network, and AI assets into a dominant infrastructure platform, Morgan Stanley's projections could prove directionally correct. If AI growth falls materially short of expectations, investors may find themselves owning an exceptional space and communications business at a valuation that already discounts decades of extraordinary execution.
The IPO is not simply a bet on rockets. It is a bet that SpaceX can become one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world.