Your premarket brief — what happened overnight, and what's set up for today.
Stocks
US futures are modestly higher this morning after Thursday's powerful rally — the Dow surged 1.86%, the S&P 500 advanced 1.75%, and the Nasdaq rallied 2.54% — and premarket futures are little changed Friday as traders weigh the Iran peace headlines and digest yesterday's move. President Trump said the US was close to a deal that would gradually restore energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran confirmed a deal was nearly finalized, draining the geopolitical premium and setting the tone for a risk-on overnight session. AI infrastructure stocks gained ahead of the SpaceX IPO, which is set to start trading Friday — the company priced at $135 per share, raising around $75 billion and implying a market valuation of around $1.78 trillion. The other story is what's not on the calendar: no data today means the tape runs on sentiment alone.
Macro
The 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 4.47% Friday after dropping around 10 basis points Thursday, as Trump's comments sparked a sharp fall in oil prices, easing concerns over persistent inflation. The Iran peace prospect is doing the Fed's work for it — lower oil means softer headline CPI ahead, buying the FOMC time even as producer prices rose 6.5% year-on-year in May, the highest since November 2022, and coupled with earlier consumer inflation at a three-year high, the data is likely to reinforce expectations that the Fed could raise rates this year. The dollar slipped, down 0.36% to 99.66, giving back a bit of its recent strength. There's no US economic data on the docket today, leaving the market to trade narratives rather than numbers.
Geopolitics
President Trump said a peace agreement with Iran could be reached as early as this weekend, marking a sharp de-escalation after weeks of strikes and counter-strikes that sent oil past $117 earlier this spring. Iran's Mehr News Agency reported that a 14-point draft agreement includes the lifting of oil sanctions and a commitment from Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, though the proposal still requires approval from Iranian authorities. Traders remained cautious, as even a breakthrough would face significant obstacles before oil flows fully normalize, including clearing mines from Hormuz, restarting idled production fields, and repairing energy facilities damaged by drone and missile attacks. Markets are pricing relief, but the details still matter.
Commodities
Crude oil dropped below $86 per barrel Friday, hitting its lowest level in nearly two months on the Iran peace headlines — Brent fell to $87.43, down 3.26% from the previous day. Oil facilities have largely been spared, which has helped prevent the kind of supply shock many traders had feared and kept prices well below earlier conflict peaks, and now the bid is unwinding fast. Gold and silver are under pressure on the same theme — safe-haven flows reversing as geopolitical risk recedes. Natural gas is quiet, trading around recent ranges with no fresh catalyst. Agriculture is steady, caught between solid demand and ample inventories. The whole complex is reading one thing: the war premium is coming out, and coming out fast.
On Deck Today
- No major US economic data releases scheduled.
- SpaceX begins trading — the $75 billion IPO priced at $135/share, implying a $1.78 trillion valuation.
- Watch for any further Iran deal headlines out of Washington or Tehran.