Your premarket brief — what happened overnight, and what's set up for today.
Stocks
S&P futures are up around 0.9%, Nasdaq futures up 1.5%, and Dow futures up 0.5% in premarket trade as the market digests the digitally signed U.S.-Iran interim peace deal that took effect overnight. Major Asian stock gauges hit record highs on the Hormuz reopening hopes, with the region leading the global rally. The tape is reading this as a Goldilocks geopolitical unwind — enough de-escalation to crush the oil premium, not so fast that it derails the reflation bid that's carried equities since April. The VIX is down over 7%, but the real tell is sector rotation: energy getting hit while industrials and transports catch a bid on lower input costs.
Macro
Treasury yields are holding near yesterday's close, with the 2-year at 4.2% and the 10-year at 4.49%, as traders parse what Kevin Warsh's hawkish hold Wednesday means for the path ahead. The new Fed Chair was bracing for rising inflation before the Iran deal; wholesale inflation rose sharply last month as the oil shock drove up business costs. The question now is whether collapsing crude gives Warsh room to hold longer or whether the inflationary impulse is already baked in — and the market isn't sure which way to lean. The dollar is firmer, up over 1% on a two-month high, as rate-cut bets get pushed further out.
Geopolitics
Crude is falling hard after the U.S. and Iran digitally signed their interim peace agreement, with a U.S. official confirming the memorandum of understanding has taken effect, though uncertainty remains over how quickly Iran will fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal includes swift reopening of the key shipping route and removal of sanctions on Iranian oil exports, with nuclear talks and additional economic incentives for Iran expected to continue. Markets are front-running the supply return, but the real risk is how long it takes to ramp production back — the EIA's June outlook assumed flows wouldn't normalize until early 2027. Shipping activity has shown signs of recovery, with Saudi oil tankers and vessels carrying LNG leaving the Gulf region.
Commodities
Crude fell to around $75 per barrel on Thursday, extending its decline toward the lowest levels since early March, with WTI down over 2.5% and Brent sliding in tandem as the Iran deal kills the geopolitical premium. Oil has now given back nearly 38% from its April spike, and the unwind isn't done — the IEA is warning of an 8 million barrel-per-day supply rise against just 2 million bpd of demand growth in 2027, setting up a glut. Crude stocks at Cushing fell to around 20 million barrels, keeping some floor under prices despite the macro selloff. Gold is getting crushed, down over 2% to around $4,280, as the safe-haven bid unwinds and real rates stay elevated. Natural gas is relatively quiet, with Henry Hub expected to average around $3.34 per MMBtu in the second half of 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand despite higher crude-driven associated gas production.
On Deck Today
- Watch for any Fedspeak or Warsh commentary clarifying Wednesday's hawkish hold and how the Iran deal shifts the inflation calculus.
- Oil inventory data will be key — market needs confirmation that the Hormuz reopening is real and supply is actually flowing.
- Energy sector earnings calls for any guidance revisions now that the $100+ oil assumption just evaporated.