Your premarket brief — what happened overnight, and what's set up for today.
Stocks
South Korea's KOSPI crashed 10% overnight, its worst session in over three months, as chip giants Samsung and SK Hynix each shed more than 12% on regulatory signals the sector rally had overheated—the rout spread through Asia and into Europe before US futures opened sharply lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 2.7% and S&P 500 futures off 1.4%. Japan's Nikkei fell 3.55%, while European indices dropped 0.5% to 1.6%. The tape is bracing for the third day of tech pain, with sentiment corroding not on one headline but the accumulation of hairline cracks—SpaceX bleeding below its IPO price, Oracle's 21,000-job AI cull, and a valuation story that assumed everything would work perfectly. The lack of clear Fed guidance from the recent FOMC is amplifying the volatility, and the Monday risk-off rally in rates and precious metals has now fully unwound.
Macro
The 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4.5% after climbing in the prior session, as markets continue to gauge the outlook for Fed rate hikes this year following last week's hawkish tone. Both Deutsche Bank and BofA Global Research have revised their forecasts to include a rate hike in September, and markets are pricing in at least one 25-basis-point Fed hike by year-end, with roughly 50% odds on a September move. The dollar firmed and the entire macro complex is positioned for tighter policy—and all eyes turn to Thursday's PCE print, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for fresh clues on the trajectory. Today brings only secondary releases: flash PMI data at 9:45 a.m. ET, Richmond Fed manufacturing at 10:00 a.m., and money-supply figures at 1:00 p.m.
Geopolitics
Crude extended losses after reports that the US and Iran agreed to a roadmap aimed at securing a final peace agreement within 60 days, with the US Treasury authorizing production and sale of Iranian oil for 60 days, boosting expectations of faster supply recovery. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has increased, with Iran moving more than 30 million barrels over the past week and Gulf producers preparing to raise output. But the relief rally is fragile: Iranian media denied Vice President Vance's claim that Tehran agreed to admit nuclear inspectors, a contradiction that could unravel the détente as quickly as it formed. The geopolitical premium in oil has collapsed for now, though the real test is whether this 60-day window produces a lasting deal or just buys time before the next flare-up.
Commodities
WTI crude slipped 0.6% to around $73/bbl and Brent fell 0.6% as the Iran détente narrative dominated, with Brent dropping to around $77/bbl, its lowest in nearly three months. Oil's giving back the war premium in real time, but the physical market still reflects acute tightness—refiners scrambling for non-Gulf cargoes, inventories drawing at record pace, and a full Hormuz reopening still weeks if not months away. Gold futures fell 1.3% to around $4,147/oz and silver dropped 4.5% to around $63/oz, unwinding Monday's haven bid as Fed-hike expectations outweighed geopolitical jitters. Natural gas dipped below $3.20, down around 1.8%, on mild weather and steady supply. Agriculture is mixed, with grains consolidating and softs under modest pressure.
On Deck Today
- 9:45 a.m. ET: Flash PMI Composite (Manufacturing, Services) — consensus expects modest expansion, with manufacturing around 51.7 and services near 51.0.
- 10:00 a.m. ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index — consensus at 8, looking for signs of stabilization in the industrial sector.
- Thursday's PCE report — the Fed's preferred inflation measure and the week's main event, with every basis point scrutinized for September-hike odds.