Your premarket brief — what happened overnight, and what's set up for today.
Stocks
US equity futures are little changed premarket, with S&P contracts up 0.1%, as traders lock in positions ahead of Kevin Warsh's debut as Fed chairman this afternoon. Chips are recovering from Tuesday's slide, though the tape feels cautious—no one wants to get caught leaning the wrong way before a 2 PM presser that could reset the tone for the back half of the year. The overnight action was muted across both Asia and Europe, with markets content to wait for Warsh rather than chase headlines on the Iran framework. The Dow flirted with 52,000 yesterday while tech gave back ground; today's the mirror image, semiconductors bid and industrials flat.
Macro
Chairman Warsh steps into the spotlight at a Fed meeting where rates aren't expected to change, but the message matters more than the hold. Retail sales surged 0.9% in May versus consensus at 0.5%, the latest print proving the consumer isn't rolling over despite elevated rates and a war that choked energy flows for months. The question now is whether Warsh leans into the strength and signals a longer pause, or nods to disinflationary pressures building as Hormuz reopens and plays dovish. Treasury yields are holding just above recent lows, the dollar steady; traders are pricing in one more cut by year-end but want to hear the chairman own it before adding to the position.
Geopolitics
The US and Iran are finalizing a deal framework to end the conflict, with details expected Friday and early provisions allowing Iran to immediately resume oil sales, according to reports overnight. Tankers from other countries are expected to resume transit through the Strait of Hormuz once the agreement takes effect, though shipping firms remain wary and rates are still elevated. Markets are treating this as a genuine de-escalation—risk-on flows returned, vol dropped—but the real test is whether traffic through the strait actually normalizes or if insurers and charterers stay spooked. Shipping through Hormuz remains just 5% of pre-conflict levels more than five weeks into the ceasefire, so skepticism is earned.
Commodities
WTI crude rose to around $76.25 per barrel, up modestly as the Iran deal pulled forward expectations for supply normalization but hasn't crushed the bid entirely. Oil has fallen nearly 27% over the past month as peace hopes built, and the complex is now pricing in a gradual return of Iranian and regional barrels rather than an immediate flood. The trade here is simple: if Hormuz reopens cleanly and OPEC+ doesn't cut to offset, we test $70; if the deal stalls or shipping stays disrupted, we're back above $80 in a hurry. Gold is consolidating after its recent run, holding gains as real yields stay soft and central bank buying continues. Natural gas remains under pressure, with Henry Hub around recent levels as warmer weather lifts power demand but oversupply keeps a lid on prices. Agriculture is quiet, grains rangebound as the Northern Hemisphere crop outlook stays benign.
On Deck Today
- FOMC decision at 2:00 PM ET — no change expected, but Warsh's first press conference as chairman immediately following will set the tone for the summer.
- Quadruple witching eve — options and futures expire tomorrow (moved to Thursday due to Juneteenth), so gamma positioning and dealer hedging flows could add chop into the close.
- API crude inventory data — another chance to see if US draws continue amid the Iran peace narrative and what it means for domestic supply dynamics.