The day in markets. What moved, what mattered, and what it sets up for tomorrow.
Stocks
The Dow ripped 875 points or 1.73% to a record close of 51,561.93, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.09% to 26,830.96 and the S&P 500 edged up 0.41% to 7,584.31 in a classic risk-on rotation away from semiconductors. The move was sparked by a sell-off in Broadcom, which tumbled after an earnings miss and dragged the entire AI trade lower, sending capital flooding into non-tech names. Health Care led the charge, up 3.14%, with Financials up 2.67%, while UnitedHealth rose more than 5% and JPMorgan climbed 3%. The message: after nine straight weeks of gains driven by chips, the bid finally cracked.
Macro
The 10-year Treasury yield dipped 1.4 basis points to 4.477%, giving equities just enough breathing room despite a labor market that refuses to cool. Initial jobless claims hit 225,000 for the week ending May 30, the highest since early February and above the 215,000 consensus, but Wednesday's ADP report showed private payrolls rose 122,000 in May, beating forecasts, keeping Fed hike odds elevated. Markets now price in an 85% chance of a quarter-point Fed rate hike by year-end, up from 60% a week ago, as strong labor data collides with oil-driven inflation fears. The dollar eased modestly, but the underlying tension remains: growth is holding up, inflation pressures aren't going away, and the Fed's next FOMC meeting on June 16-17 looms large.
Geopolitics
Stocks were mixed and oil prices eased Thursday as investors weighed developments in the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has dominated risk sentiment for weeks. President Trump called the House-approved war powers resolution a "meaningless vote" and described the four Republicans who joined Democrats in support as "grandstanders", even as Iran and the United States issued conflicting statements on ceasefire discussions, with Trump saying a deal could be reached "this weekend" while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said there had been no "significant process". The whipsaw between ceasefire hopes and fresh strikes has kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and oil prices swinging — traders are learning the hard way that geopolitical clarity is the only thing in shorter supply than crude right now.
Commodities
WTI crude futures fell toward $95 per barrel on Thursday after three consecutive sessions of gains, while Brent fell to $96.97, snapping a three-day rally as ceasefire talk tempered the Iran risk premium. EIA data showed U.S. crude oil inventories fell for a sixth consecutive week, bringing stockpiles closer to minimum operating levels, underscoring how quickly the cushion is eroding even as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, though reports suggest traffic has picked up over the past two weeks with some vessels operating in coordination with the U.S. military. Gold caught a modest bid as the dollar eased, though the complex remains hostage to headline risk out of the Gulf. Natural gas and agriculture were quiet. The lesson: oil's giving back some froth, but the structural tightness hasn't gone anywhere, and the next missile launch could erase today's selloff in minutes.
Setting Up Tomorrow
- The May jobs report drops at 8:30 a.m. — the most important print in months, with consensus around continued strength but claims data hinting at cracks. A hot number cements the Fed hike trade; a miss and rotation accelerates.
- Oil's ceasefire narrative gets tested overnight — any fresh Iran escalation and crude gaps higher at the open, dragging equities lower. The bid in energy stocks depends entirely on whether Trump's "this weekend" timeline holds.
- Tech's on trial: Broadcom's washout opened the door for the first real sector rotation in two months. If chips can't stabilize tomorrow, the Nasdaq's nine-week win streak officially dies and value extends the run.