The day in five. What moved, what mattered, and what it sets up for tomorrow.
Oil
Brent settled at $94.58, down 0.4%, while WTI traded in a range between $91.51 and $92.64 as Iran-US ceasefire talks dragged into day two with no meaningful progress. Markets gave back Monday's gains as Tehran suspended communications with Washington over Israeli strikes in Lebanon, and Iran and its allies continue to weigh full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Trump said a memorandum of understanding to reopen Hormuz could be reached within the next week, but that's been said before. The bid stays structural until the strait reopens — the supply-disruption premium is priced, not speculated.
Precious Metals
Gold fell to $4,455, down 1.9% from the previous day, extending its retreat from January's highs above $5,000. Escalating oil prices driven by renewed Iran-US strikes intensified inflation worries and strengthened expectations that central banks will keep rates higher for longer, with markets now assigning a roughly 50% probability to at least one US rate hike by year-end. Silver held up better, slipping just half a percent. Gold is trading like a risk asset now — inversely correlated to oil as the Iran war drags on. The 200-day average held Monday; if it breaks, the January lows are back in play.
Natural Gas
Henry Hub rose to $3.19 per MMBtu, up 0.3%, steadying after Monday's pullback from a near three-month high. Weather forecasts continue to point to mostly above-normal temperatures through mid-June, boosting gas consumption from power generators as air conditioning demand rises, while production in the Lower 48 averaged 109.4 Bcf/d in May, slightly below April's 109.8 Bcf/d. Flows to major LNG export facilities declined to 17.1 Bcf/d from a record 18.8 Bcf/d in April due to seasonal maintenance. Gas is tracking early summer heat, not geopolitics. June cooling demand could test the grid and pull inventories tighter than the market expects.
US Power
ERCOT's 2026 4CP season is off to a strong start, with demand on June 1st already forecast to exceed the 2025 peak for all of June, putting grid strain front and center as data centers come online faster than new generation. Wholesale power prices rose 62% year-on-year in New York State, 60% in New England, and 45% in PJM, reflecting higher gas prices, capacity market pressure, and grid constraints. PJM's latest capacity auction cleared at record levels, pushing commercial bills higher starting this month. Load growth is no longer a forecast — it's here, and the grid is scrambling to keep up. Summer will separate the hedged from the hopeful.
Agriculture
Wheat fell to $6.08, down marginally, drifting lower after last month's spike on US-China trade optimism faded. Drought conditions worsened in parts of Nebraska and Oklahoma, affecting winter wheat and newly planted corn and soybeans, while crop scouts in Kansas reported lower than expected yields for hard red winter wheat, estimating 39.3 bushels per acre compared with 53.3 last year. Farmers continue to face cost pressures, with recent increases in fuel and fertilizer prices driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Iran war is squeezing ag margins from the cost side while China demand stays murky. Growers are planting into a profit squeeze — yield will have to be the hero.
Setting Up Tomorrow
- Watch oil's reaction to any Iran-US statement overnight — another failed round of talks could send Brent back toward $96.
- Gold's 200-day moving average at $4,450 is the line in the sand — a break puts $4,300 support in focus.
- ERCOT demand forecast for midweek — if it runs hot again, nat gas could test $3.25 and power prices will follow.