Sunday, May 31, 2026 · 02:38 PM
Seventy percent of US farmers say they cannot afford all the fertilizer they need for 2026, according to an American Farm Bureau Federation survey of more than 5,700 producers conducted April 3-11. DAP averaged $914 per ton in the first week of May, up 6% from the previous month. That's not a supply hiccup. That's the economics of row-crop agriculture breaking in real time.
Farmers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% from last year, with acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year, with acreage increases of 300,000 or more expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. This is the largest voluntary acreage shift away from corn in over a decade, and it's being driven entirely by input affordability.
The math is brutal. Break-even prices to cover all costs without government support are in the $4.70-$4.90 range for corn and $10.80-$11.25 range for soybeans, close to or above current market prices. The estimated 2025 marketing year average corn price is $4.15 per bushel. Farmers are paying $5 per bushel to grow corn they'll sell for $4.20. USDA predicts 2026 corn costs $5/bushel to produce but will sell for $4.20, while soybeans cost $12.27 to produce but will sell for $10.30.
Soybeans fix their own nitrogen. Corn demands urea at $865/ton, anhydrous at $1,118/ton, or UAN28 at $530/ton. Urea is up 34 percent from just last month. The crop-switching decision writes itself. North Carolina farmer Lorenda Overman is cutting back corn acreage to plant crops less fertilizer-dependent, specifically soybeans, and spreading fertilizer "a little bit thinner". Oklahoma farmer Tommy Salisbury is reducing milo acreage and pivoting toward soybeans to offset rising costs.
"When producers cannot afford full fertilizer application rates, they may reduce nutrient use or shift acreage decisions, both of which increase the risk of lower yields and reduced production potential in the 2026 crop year." — Faith Parum, AFBF Economist
USDA projects that close to 30% of the 2026 average net farm income for US farmers will come from government farm program payments, following an estimated 20% of net farm income in 2025 from various payments. Net farm income is forecast at $153.4 billion for calendar year 2026, a decrease of $1.2 billion (0.7%) relative to 2025 in nominal dollars, or $4.1 billion (2.6%) after adjusting for inflation. That's down from the record US net farm income of $186 billion in 2022.
Farmers in the Southern region reported the greatest difficulty securing fertilizer, with 78% unable to afford all needed inputs this season, while producers in the Northeast and West reported 69% and 66% respectively, compared to 48% in the Midwest. Regional dispersion matters. The Midwest has higher pre-booking rates and tighter supplier relationships. The South and West are flying blind into planting season with half their phosphate budget missing.
What to watch:
- June 30 USDA Acreage Report: Will reveal whether farmers stuck with March intentions or shifted further toward soybeans as fertilizer stayed expensive through April and May.
- 2027 crop budgets: If phosphate stays above $850/ton through summer, expect another 2-3 million acre shift out of corn next year.
- Yield drag in Q3: Farmers who "stretched" fertilizer applications thin will see it show up in August pod counts and September yield monitors.